Placing The Cart In Front Of The Horse?ByRaymond D. Matkowsky
In 2023 the United States (U.S.) had approximately 284,600,000 cars registered. The world’s automobile population was about 1.64 billion at the start of 2025. It is the hope of many that we get these vehicles off carbon based fuels. However, much of the electrical grids are very fragile and it doesn’t take much to bring one or more down. Heavy loads, weather, or natural disasters can and do bring girds down. This always needs to be kept in mind.
Electric Uses
Although this figure can vary significantly, the average electric vehicle (EV) consumes about 30 to 35 kilowatt-hours (kWH) per 100 miles or 18 to 22 kWH per 100 kilometers. Consumption varies according to vehicle size and weight (small SUV versus large trucks), efficiencies, locations, and driving styles. Some vehicles will consume values exceeding 60 kWH per 100 miles. Higher speeds also lead to more energy usage in all cases.
In 2023, the United States generated approximately 4.18 trillion kWH of electricity with an additional 73.6 billion kWH from solar systems. Wind, hydro-power, and nuclear energy accounted for another 89.2 billion kWH of power. The total is 4.343 trillion kWH.
In 2022 the U.S. consumed about 4.07 trillion kWH of electricity. Recent data for 2023 is 4.27 trillion kWH consumed. Near the total amount produced. Over one year the amount of electricity generated and consumed has only increased about 5%.
Many environmentalists would like to see a 100% adoption of EVs. Is that feasible? It doesn’t appear to be.
A 50% rate of adoption would result in 142.3 million EVs on the roads of USA. At 30 kWH per 100 miles, they would consume approximately 4.27 million kWH every 100 miles. According to Google® the average person is said to drive 13476 miles a year (a figure I believe to be low). This implies that at a 50% adoption rate, these vehicles would consume 57.32 million kWH or 0.05732 trillion kWH. It would be significant portion of typical growth. History has told us that published values tend to be low. At such rates, there will be no meaningful slack in the system.
Will we only have a 50% adoption rate or will it be closer to 100%? 100% would likely require more generating capacity than we have. Even 50% doesn’t allow for much growth. Even at lower adoption rates, there would be questions about all the other needs for power and growth. Where will new generating plants be located? What size would they need to be? Would they occupy land areas that are available and are vital to peoples’ wellbeing? All of these are questions that haven’t been addressed. There are probably many more.
Fossil Fuels
Will EVs eliminate the use of fossil fuels? Most likely, they probably will not. Electricity is generated using a variety of such fuels. The more electricity generated, the more fossil fuels will be consumed.
Security Risks
There is one more point that I never heard addressed. 100% adoption rate is a security risk. If an adversary wanted to disrupt you, all they would need to do is attack one point. This is true not only for a nation, but also for a small business.
The Concept Is Right, The Timing Is Wrong
This whole concept needs further thought. I am not against electric vehicles. It is the wave of the future. However, I believe they are not ready. The weakness is battery recharging. EVs need a different source of electricity. No one is apparently working on this.
Also, bringing out a product that performs below peoples’ expectations damages acceptance in the future.
By putting the cart in front of the horse, we are just buying ourselves more trouble and ignoring future problems that matter.
If you have any comments, let us know. Email me at rdm@datastats.com. We will try to print it in our next newsletter.
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